When every other expert out there gave Hillary Clinton a comfortable lead, one professor held true to his 'system' and predicted that Trump would win. He has predicted every election accurately since 1984 except for Al Gore, who did win the popular vote. Now he's written a book to explain why he thinks Donald Trump will be impeached.
American University history professor Allan Lichtman has a system to predict the outcome of elections. The system is based on 13 true/false questions about the sitting party. In the 2016 election, the data showed that the Democrats were going to lose the White House. This was an unpopular prediction, until it turned out to be true.
In his new book, 'The Case for Impeachment,' he explains why it could happen to Trump. "I believe he is more vulnerable than any other president in the history of the nation," Lichtman said.
The formula doesn't work quite the same way for impeachment, and in general, impeachment is harder to predict. There have only been two presidents impeached in all of U.S. history: Andrew Johnson in 1868 and Bill Clinton in 1998. Nixon would have probably been impeached for the Watergate scandal, but he resigned. So when it comes to impeachment, there's a lot less to go on.
However, Lichtman does see parallels between Trump and impeached (or would-be impeached) presidents. He particularly sees parallels between Trump and Nixon.
"Trump is very thin-skinned and considers the media to be his enemy. He believes in being on the attack at all times, and in the important of getting even with people," Lichtman said. "He has a penchant for lying and for deflecting controversy instead of meeting it head-on," Lichtman explains. "Finally, like Nixon, Trump seems bereft of any guiding principles, other than doing what is best for himself... this lack of guiding principles, for a president, is very dangerous."
Lichtman believes that the Trump campaign's ties to Russia could prove disastrous for the president.
One thing to keep in mind is that just because a president is impeached does not mean he's automatically removed from office. That's never happened in the U.S. — but there's a first time for everything.
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